Richmond Regional Housing Framework Data Update

Selected draft findings

HDAdvisors

2022-09-08

Research scope

How have housing needs changed across the region since the original Framework release?

Four parts:

  1. Demographic and socioeconomic changes
  2. Housing supply and market changes
  3. Gap analysis
  4. Local summaries

Data source updates

Source Original Current
American Community Survey 2013-2017 5-year estimates 2016-2020 5-year estimates
Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy 2012-2016 5-year estimates 2014-2018 5-year estimates
Census Population Estimates Program 2018 2021, including 2020 Decennial Census
Census Building Permits Survey 2018 2022, through July
MLS 2019 2022, through August
CoStar Not used 2022, through August

Other updated datasets

Additional sources used for this refresh include:

  • National Housing Preservation Database
  • BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics
  • CFPB Mortgage Performance Trends
  • Point-in-Time homelessness counts and McKinney-Vento student homelessness statistics
  • District court eviction filings and judgments

Demographic and socioeconomic changes

More people come here than are born here.


Young adults are shacking up.


Lowest-payed workers saw the biggest (relative) pay bumps.

Housing supply and market changes

Racial homeownership gaps remain the status quo.


A tight supply is pushing existing home prices closer to new build prices.

The supply of 2- and 3-bedroom apartments decreased.


Rising prices for 2- and 3-bedroom apartments reflect higher demand.


Our supply of dedicated affordable rentals increased by 2,700.


Rents are skyrocketing in “naturally-occurring” affordable multifamily properties.


Defining NOAH

We use CoStar’s definition for naturally-occurring affordable housing (NOAH):

Non-subsidized rents, one or two star rating, built before 2000, Class B or C (or unclassified).

Gap analysis

On average, renters in the counties face the largest affordability gaps.


Data limitation

Median renter income data only available through 2020.

Data for 1-year 2021 ACS estimates to be released this month; 2017-2021 5-year estimates (more reliable) due early 2023.

Rent burdens may be shifting up the income scale.


Use with caution

Estimates for 2020 (the 2016-2020 5-year ACS release) may be impacted by lower survey response rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Local summaries

Richmond City

  • State and federal eviction protections significantly cut down on evictions

  • Average eviction judgements per month in 2022 were 62 — an 89 percent reduction from the 2019 average of 576

  • Data only through March — 16,000 eviction hearings scheduled in August statewide

Chesterfield County

  • In 2018, there was a shortage of 7,569 rental units for households below 80% AMI

  • Greatest need in the county has been among households below 50% AMI

  • But the need for rental at the higher end has been increasing (15% increase)

Hanover County

  • Between 2016 and 2020, overall decrease in households making less than $100,000

  • Due to loss of lower income households and increases in household incomes among homeowners and renters

  • Home prices following suit — median home price now over $400,000

Henrico County

  • In stark contrast to homeowners, renter households are not seeing large increases

  • Most notably, there’s been a decrease in renter households with children by 1,010

Next steps

  • Share slides and draft report

  • Feedback from PHA Board and staff

  • Complete final updates on report (incorporating edits and suggestions)

  • Consistent branding and visualizations

  • Provide updates to data based on timing

  • Assist PHA with creating additional collateral

Discussion